Research 2000 for Daily Kos (1/26-28, likely voters):
Roland Burris (D-inc): 37
Mark Kirk (R): 30Roland Burris (D-inc): 38
Peter Roskam (R): 25Jan Schakowsky (D): 36
Mark Kirk (R): 30Jan Schakowsky (D): 37
Peter Roskam (R): 25Alexi Giannoulias (D): 38
Mark Kirk (R): 30Alexi Giannoulias (D): 38
Peter Roskam (R): 25
(MoE: ±4%)Roland Burris (D-inc): 26
Jan Schakowsky (D): 12
Alexi Giannoulias (D): 11
Undecided: 51Mark Kirk (R): 27
Peter Roskam (R): 17
Undecided: 56
(MoE: ±5%)
This poll ought to be a palliative for those people worried that the blowback from Rod Blagojevich’s attempt to sell the Illinois Senate seat (and his subsequent impeachment), and Roland Burris’s enthusiasm to occupy said tainted seat, mean that the Republicans are in prime position to take over the seat in 2010. There are a lot of undecideds, obviously, but even up against the Illinois GOP’s top tier (Reps. Mark Kirk and Peter Roskam), Burris looks to be in the driver’s seat. Considering the terrible optics of accepting Blago’s appointment, Burris’s favorability isn’t that bad; his favorable/unfavorable is 35/35.
In the general, though, Burris fares really no better or worse than any of the other Democrats interested in mounting a primary challenge to him in 2010. Rep. Jan Schakowsky and state treasurer Alexi Giannoulias put up very similar numbers, indicating that Illinoisians are retaining their Dem leanings and are capable of separating Blagojevich’s spate of increasingly appalling actions from the Democratic brand in general. Tellingly, both Kirk and Roskam have negative favorability (37/41 for Kirk and 19/23 for the little-known Roskam), suggesting that voters’ dislike for them may have a lot to do with the “R” after their names.
The Democratic primary also sees the voters in a wait-and-see mode. Burris, on the strength of a month’s worth of media saturation, has an edge. But at only 26%, it can’t be seen as a clear path to victory at this point, especially with Schakowsky probably being labor’s and EMILY’s List’s candidate, and Giannoulias bringing his own powerful connections with him.
While I agree that the numbers are not a good sign for the Republicans, it is also more than a bit worrying that none of the Democrats even break 40% in a fundamentally Democratic state.
It seems to me that after all of the political chaos in Illinois the electorate is rather unsettled. I’d be very cautious about proclaiming these as great numbers for us — at most I’d consider it to be mildly encouraging. We should not be overconfident about this seat until we see the state dynamics evolve a lot more.
I’d have thought, with the saturation coverage of the Blago business, that he’d have a big hole to climb out of. It’s incredible that so many people still have no opinion of him.
If he’s made it this far without significant damage, I would have to say that would be a big boost to his prospects if he wants to keep the seat; now that he’s ensconced in the Senate, he can busy himself with defining himself to the people with no opinion.
In these numbers. The good being that this is probably the low point for IL Dems and they still maintain a lead.
The bad is that those top-line numbers indicate that voters are willing to give the GOP candidates a listen. The head-to-head numbers are so similar that right now its basically generic D vs generic R. If someone like Mark Kirk can resonate, he could definitely pull this off.
Am I missing something? Considering Kirk represents about 1/20th of the population, HIS numbers are great.
Kirk holds a seat where Obama pulled in 61% of the vote. We should win a vacant seat. This is one of only six districts carried by Kerry that are represented by Republicans. Other than dead man walking Joe Cao, this is about as Democratic as it gets (basically tied with Delaware but Castle is still seen as seeking re-election). IL-6 is definitely winnable as well.
I still want him primaried out.
I don’t think this poll gives much info besides party ID and a little name recognition. If anyone had a big lead and they were over 50%, then that would be good news for them, but I certainly don’t see this poll as good news for Illinois Dems. In fact, Kirk could even tout this poll as showing him within striking distance when his name ID isn’t huge, and smaller than the D’s, as well as the fact that Illinois is a Democratic state. I’m sure the pollsters don’t let them know that Kirk is a moderate R, so many voters prob just think of him as a generic R.
Roland Burris = Jack Davis
Jan Schakowsky = Alice Kryzan
Alexi Giannoulias = Jon Powers
And Giannoulias doesn’t. I think a Schakowsky vs Burris primary would be our best chance of ousting him. I still hope he retires, but I don’t think so and I’d love to add such a fantastic Senator like Jan Schakowsky.